Sideway trend in the latest draws
IRCC held the latest Express Entry draw on April 17th, 2019 where there has been little decrease to the minimum CRS point.
This draw is the second consecutive time with the minimum CRS point of 451, and at the same time, the number of issued Invitations To Apply (ITAs) was at the steady rate of 3,350 for the past 6 weeks.
The tie-breaking date has been reported as of April 2nd, 2019. It means that all applicants with CRS score of 451 who submitted their application before such date are invited to apply under express entry system. Reaching the tie-in date so close to the current date means that the pile of pending applications with CRS score of 451 or higher has been reduced and with the current rate of intake, there might be chances of more reduction in the minimum CRS point.
However, although the CRS point reached a recent low 438 on January 30th, 2019, it soared again by reduction of the number of ITAs issues from 3,900 to 3,350. It appears that IRCC tries to avoid further lowering minimum CRS points by controlling the number of Invitations to Apply (ITAs). If that is the case, we should see the effects on IRCC long term target of reaching +310,000 immigrants per year.
The average of minimum CRS points for the last 10 draws 448, and that is a safe estimate for a possible pass mark in the coming draws. It is probable that the number of ITAs would increase slightly soon.
The pool also shows considerable number (around 6,586 applicants) with CRS higher than 441, which eliminates the possibility of further decline in CRS score, if IRCC keeps sending +3,350 ITAs every two weeks.
You can always fill the free assessment form to be notified of your eligibility in Express Entry programs as well as other federal and provincial streams.